Calf values are down roughly 50% from 2014 highs, with efficient operations likely covering cash costs and breeding stock depreciation, but resulting in little to no return to capital, land, and management.
Recent prices have likely slowed expansion, but beef cow numbers will likely be up again in 2017.
Look for price improvement in the spring of 2017, but a significant drop from spring to fall given mounting meat supplies.
Fall 2017 could be the bottom of this price cycle.
Avian Influenza significantly impacted 2015 export values and bird values which also likely impacted the rate of turnover and replacement in KY operations.
Receipts should be back on track in 2016 and growth appears to be continuing in 2017.
Horse receipts have been flat for several years, rebounding from the depressed market during the 2009-2012 period.
September yearling sales were down around 3%, but early November breeding stock sales were solid before slumping at the end when mid to lower quality horses were placed on the market.
Equine sales and receipts are likely to be steady for 2017.
Alfalfa hay production is down for 2016 with prices slightly higher for higher quality hay. Grass hay production is likely steady with prices a bit lower. The wet spring and dry fall impacted quality and quantity across the state.
Year-over-year prices were down about 10% in 2016, with the largest differences in the beginning and end of the year.
USDA Hogs and Pigs report suggested significant growth in hog numbers in KY for 2016.
Fourth quarter hog slaughter has pushed slaughter capacity and drastically impacted hog prices.
Price improvement is likely in 2017 as some new plants begin operations and growth in KY hog numbers is likely to continue.
KY mailbox dairy prices for 2016 were down 12 to 13% from 2015 levels.
The first significant payments were made from MPP-Dairy program this past summer, but most KY dairy producers chose very low coverage levels and did not receive any payments.
Some improvement in prices occurred in the second half of 2016 and is likely to continue into 2017.
Source: 2016-2017 Kentucky Agricultural Economic Situation and Outlook, University of Kentucky College of Agriculture, Food and Environment
Horn fly and face fly numbers will continue to build for a few weeks, which will put pressure on control programs. It is a good time to evaluate the pasture fly situation in your herd; check during the early afternoon on a sunny day (Figure 1). Less than 100 horn flies per side and less than 10 face flies per head is a good target for animal protection. Consider an adjustment or supplemental measure if fly numbers exceed these guidelines.
Late season fly control is important. Pasture flies are approaching peak numbers for the season, so their impacts are near maximum levels. Also, exposure of flies to less than recommended rates of insecticide due to less effective treatment selects for resistant individuals and increased chance for control failure. To ensure flys are kept in check, evaluate management options by following suggestions:
Insecticide-impregnated cattle ear tags can provide 12 to 15 weeks or protection. Effectiveness may be running out in herds that were tagged a little early in the season.
Feed-thru insecticides in mineral supplements require a minimum level of daily consumption by each animal. Be sure that the product is available and that the consumption rate appears to be on-target. This alternative is based on controlling horn fly and face fly maggots that develop only in cow manure. Face flies and horn flies can move a mile or two, so action may be needed to control flies that move in from nearby herds. Provide supplemental control, as necessary.
Be sure that self-applicators are charged and working. The fly wipe in Figure 2 appears to be dry so the reservoir tank may need to be filled. In some cases, dust can build up enough to reduce the wicking action in wipes and oilers. Be sure dust bags have not been damaged and that the insecticide in them is dry and flowing.
Pour-on and spray applications generally provide about 4 weeks of fly control. Check the last treatment date and be sure doses are measured accurately.
By Lee Townsend, Extension Entomologist
June is dairy month! What’s not to love about eating ice cream, cheeses, yogurts and all things dairy. Even though I love all these things, I admire the heart and soul of dairy farm families! The work is hard, tasks are 24/7 and there are no holidays. But what you will find are: close knit families who have worked together for a common goal,
- families that LOVE their cows
- families that exhibit hard work and residence
Thank you to the 20 dairy farm families in Warren County, KY and all those across the United States! Warren County is 5th in milk production in the state producing 72.9 million pounds of milk each year.
For more Kentucky Facts click here: Kentucky Dairy Facts
Not only are the farmers an asset to our communities, they produce an awesome product. Milk contains a combination of nutrients that play a key role in preventing heart disease, diabetes and osteoporosis. So celebrate dairy month and be sure to include dairy in your snacks and meals! Here are a few of my favorites:
USDA is extending the deadlines for the dairy Margin Protection Program. Farmers now have until Dec. 5, 2014, to enroll in the voluntary program, established by the 2014 Farm Bill. The program provides financial assistance to participating farmers when the margin – the difference between the price of milk and feed costs – falls below the coverage level selected by the farmer.
Producers are encouraged to use the online Web resource at www.fsa.usda.gov/mpptool to calculate the best levels of coverage for their dairy operation. The secure website can be accessed via computer, smartphone or tablet.