Blog Archives

Livestock

Cattle
 Calf values are down roughly 50% from 2014 highs, with efficient operations likely covering cash costs and breeding stock depreciation, but resulting in little to no return to capital, land, and management.
 Recent prices have likely slowed expansion, but beef cow numbers will likely be up again in 2017.
 Look for price improvement in the spring of 2017, but a significant drop from spring to fall given mounting meat supplies.
 Fall 2017 could be the bottom of this price cycle.

livestock

Poultry
 Avian Influenza significantly impacted 2015 export values and bird values which also likely impacted the rate of turnover and replacement in KY operations.
 Receipts should be back on track in 2016 and growth appears to be continuing in 2017.

Equine/Hay
 Horse receipts have been flat for several years, rebounding from the depressed market during the 2009-2012 period.
 September yearling sales were down around 3%, but early November breeding stock sales were solid before slumping at the end when mid to lower quality horses were placed on the market.
 Equine sales and receipts are likely to be steady for 2017.
 Alfalfa hay production is down for 2016 with prices slightly higher for higher quality hay. Grass hay production is likely steady with prices a bit lower. The wet spring and dry fall impacted quality and quantity across the state.

Hogs
 Year-over-year prices were down about 10% in 2016, with the largest differences in the beginning and end of the year.
 USDA Hogs and Pigs report suggested significant growth in hog numbers in KY for 2016.
 Fourth quarter hog slaughter has pushed slaughter capacity and drastically impacted hog prices.
 Price improvement is likely in 2017 as some new plants begin operations and growth in KY hog numbers is likely to continue.

Dairy
 KY mailbox dairy prices for 2016 were down 12 to 13% from 2015 levels.
 The first significant payments were made from MPP-Dairy program this past summer, but most KY dairy producers chose very low coverage levels and did not receive any payments.
 Some improvement in prices occurred in the second half of 2016 and is likely to continue into 2017.

Source: 2016-2017 Kentucky Agricultural Economic Situation and Outlook, University of Kentucky College of Agriculture, Food and Environment