Calf values are down roughly 50% from 2014 highs, with efficient operations likely covering cash costs and breeding stock depreciation, but resulting in little to no return to capital, land, and management.
Recent prices have likely slowed expansion, but beef cow numbers will likely be up again in 2017.
Look for price improvement in the spring of 2017, but a significant drop from spring to fall given mounting meat supplies.
Fall 2017 could be the bottom of this price cycle.
Avian Influenza significantly impacted 2015 export values and bird values which also likely impacted the rate of turnover and replacement in KY operations.
Receipts should be back on track in 2016 and growth appears to be continuing in 2017.
Horse receipts have been flat for several years, rebounding from the depressed market during the 2009-2012 period.
September yearling sales were down around 3%, but early November breeding stock sales were solid before slumping at the end when mid to lower quality horses were placed on the market.
Equine sales and receipts are likely to be steady for 2017.
Alfalfa hay production is down for 2016 with prices slightly higher for higher quality hay. Grass hay production is likely steady with prices a bit lower. The wet spring and dry fall impacted quality and quantity across the state.
Year-over-year prices were down about 10% in 2016, with the largest differences in the beginning and end of the year.
USDA Hogs and Pigs report suggested significant growth in hog numbers in KY for 2016.
Fourth quarter hog slaughter has pushed slaughter capacity and drastically impacted hog prices.
Price improvement is likely in 2017 as some new plants begin operations and growth in KY hog numbers is likely to continue.
KY mailbox dairy prices for 2016 were down 12 to 13% from 2015 levels.
The first significant payments were made from MPP-Dairy program this past summer, but most KY dairy producers chose very low coverage levels and did not receive any payments.
Some improvement in prices occurred in the second half of 2016 and is likely to continue into 2017.
Source: 2016-2017 Kentucky Agricultural Economic Situation and Outlook, University of Kentucky College of Agriculture, Food and Environment